Now
Ecological systems are dynamic, meaning that their properties can change over time.
Ecological systems feature feedbacks, meaning that the dynamics of one component of a system often affects another.
The dynamics and wellbeing of ecological systems are tightly intertwined with the dynamics and wellbeing of human societies
Understanding ecological systems requires us to confront uncertainty, which can arise because of limited knowledge of the system, or due to inherently stochastic processes.
Patterns and drivers of major energy/substance fluxes
Over this week, we will consider the global drivers of nitrogen and water
We will frequently talk in terms of “pools” and “fluxes”
Today’s case study: how precipitation shapes ecological patterns, and vice-versa.
https://neo.gsfc.nasa.gov/view.php?datasetId=MOD17A3H_Y_NPP
Net primary productivity across the globe
What determines the productivity of a system, and why is it so different across the globe?
How does productivity relate to biodiversity?
How might ecosystem productivity be affected by human activities?
What determines the productivity of a system, and why is it so different across the globe?
First-order explanation: productivity is shaped by precipitation and temperature

The question then becomes, what shapes precipitation and temperature?

A first-order explanation
A first-order explanation
Rain shadow effect

Patterns of precipitation are not driven by “structural” factors alone

Patterns of precipitation are not driven by “structural” factors alone
Landscapes with vegetation that transpire more water will have larger evapotranspirative flux, which moves water from the groundwater pool to the atmospheric pool
Depending on what happens to the atmospheric water, this can cause more rainfall
Human modified landscapes often have reduced rates of evapotranspiration

(fig. 2 from Spracklen et al. 2018, Annual Reviews of Environment and Resources)
Large reductions in rainfall expected due to land-use change

(fig. 2 from Spracklen et al. 2018, Annual Reviews of Environment and Resources)
Changes in rainfall can lead to “regime shifts”

A more subtle story of the water cycle in the Amazon basin

This analysis provides compelling observational evidence that rainforest transpiration during the late dry season plays a central role in initiating the dry-to-wet season transition over the southern Amazon
The fate of the southern Amazon rainforest depends on the length of the dry season.
The length of the dry season also depends on the rainforest.