Now
Patterns and drivers of major energy/substance fluxes
Net primary productivity across the globe
https://neo.gsfc.nasa.gov/view.php?datasetId=MOD17A3H_Y_NPP
Major drivers of global water cycle
https://www.usgs.gov/media/files/water-cycle-poster-pdf
Major drivers of global nitrogen cycle
Life: The Science of Biology
“The ecosystems we isolate mentally are not only included as parts of larger ones, but they also overlap, interlock, and interact with one another.”
- Arthur Tansley
What are the pools of energy or substance in the system?
What are the fluxes of the energy or substance in the system?
What happens when ecosystem processes are perturbed?
How do these changes affect biodiversity and productivity?
Consider the global water cycle
What are the major pools?
What are the major fluxes?
https://labs.waterdata.usgs.gov/visualizations/water-cycle/index.html#/
What explains variation in net productivity across the globe?
First-order explanation: productivity is shaped by precipitation and temperature
The question then becomes, what shapes precipitation and temperature?
Inter-tropical convergence zones
Rain shadow effect
Patterns of precipitation are not driven by “structural” factors alone
Patterns of precipitation are not driven by “structural” factors alone
Patterns of precipitation are not driven by “structural” factors alone
Landscapes with vegetation that transpire more water will have larger evapotranspirative flux, which moves water from the groundwater pool to the atmospheric pool
Depending on what happens to the atmospheric water, this can cause more rainfall somewhere
Human modified landscapes often have reduced rates of evapotranspiration
(fig. 2 from Spracklen et al. 2018, Annual Reviews of Environment and Resources)
Large reductions in rainfall expected due to land-use change
(fig. 2 from Spracklen et al. 2018, Annual Reviews of Environment and Resources)
Changes in rainfall can lead to “regime shifts”
A more subtle story of the water cycle in the Amazon basin
This analysis provides compelling observational evidence that rainforest transpiration during the late dry season plays a central role in initiating the dry-to-wet season transition over the southern Amazon
The fate of the southern Amazon rainforest depends on the length of the dry season.
The length of the dry season also depends on the rainforest.